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Anticipated decrease of 600,000 metric tons in US beef production compared to 2022.
Reduced supplies driving up prices, negatively impacting international competitiveness.
Australia and New Zealand taking advantage of reduced US production by boosting imports.
US beef exports facing challenges as Australia competes in vital Asian markets.
Countries included:
- United States
- Australia
- New Zealand
- Canada
- Mexico
- Brazil
- Japan
- South Korea
- China
- EU
- UK
- India
Production
In 2023, US beef production is expected to reach approximately 12.2 million metric tons, representing a significant drop of over 600,000 metric tons compared to 2022 levels. This decrease can be attributed to a decline in slaughter rates from feedlots, which were down 5% year-on-year for July. The remainder of 2023 is projected to witness a continued decline in production, with a slight offset from gains in carcase weights and increased cull cow slaughter. Looking ahead to 2024, the USDA forecasts a further reduction in production to 11.4 million metric tons, a decrease of 800,000 metric tons (6%) from 2023.
Prices
US steer prices have been on the rise compared to the same period in the previous year, reflecting tightening supplies. Prices have recently stabilized, reaching $6.36 per kilogram for the week ending on October 6, 2023. Over the past four weeks, prices averaged $6.40, showing a notable growth of 28% from the $5 per kilogram observed during the same period in 2022.
In contrast, Australia, which has increased its beef production in 2023, has experienced price declines throughout the year. This trend has made Australian imports more competitive on the global stage when compared to the USA.
Trading Situation
US beef imports for the year up to July have reached 773,000 metric tons, showing a 3% growth compared to 2022. Import volumes from Canada, the largest trading partner for the USA in terms of volume, have remained relatively stable at 203,000 metric tons in 2023.
Conversely, imports from New Zealand have surged to 117,000 metric tons (+25%), and Australia has witnessed a significant increase to 110,000 metric tons (+36%). This rise in imports can be attributed to the expansion of the Australian beef herd, which has lowered prices to enhance international competitiveness. Notably, New Zealand’s exports to Japan, Korea, and China have decreased by 10% this season, possibly resulting in increased product flow to the US market.
The growth in Oceania’s beef volumes corresponds to an increase in frozen product imports to the USA since January 2023. Frozen products have overtaken fresh ones as the largest category entering the USA, coinciding with increased imports from Australia and New Zealand. This shift is advantageous for longer transportation times.
As Oceania countries prosper, countries geographically closer to the USA have faced losses. Mexico’s imports have fallen by 9% to 161,000 metric tons, while Brazil has experienced a 12% decrease, reaching 99,000 metric tons. The USDA reports that the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for Brazilian beef to enter the USA was filled in early May, resulting in significantly higher tariffs for subsequent imports, leading to the decline in trade.
US beef exports have totaled 736,000 metric tons so far this year, reflecting a decrease of 93,000 metric tons from 2022. Factors such as reduced domestic supplies and elevated prices have contributed to this decline. Weaker economic conditions in key nations and unfavorable exchange rates have further constrained exports. The most significant drop in exports occurred in shipments to Japan, down to 146,000 metric tons, and to South Korea, the second-largest market for the USA, at 147,000 metric tons. Exports to China have also fallen by 17%, reaching 110,000 metric tons.
Global Implications
The declining US beef production and rising prices have significant global ramifications. Australia and New Zealand are stepping in to fill the supply gaps, bolstering their production throughout the year. Global beef demand is expected to remain relatively stable for the remainder of the year, despite cost-of-living challenges affecting consumer demand. The USDA anticipates a decrease in Chinese demand in 2024. However, demand is expected to see modest increases in Brazil, Canada, and India in 2024, partially offsetting the decline.
Global prices are likely to be mixed for the remainder of the year, with Australian and Brazilian prices facing pressure while US prices remain firm. These dynamics will play a crucial role in the EU and UK markets, with the competitiveness of imports being a key aspect to monitor.
Font: essfeed.com
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